Over the past few years, I've been asked repeatedly for market data on Agile development. How big is the Agile market? What is its potential size? What is the penetration of Agile processes? Unfortunately, my response has been and still remains the same: "No one really knows, and if you find someone purporting to have the data, don't trust it." With so many supporters in the IT, software vendor, and consulting communities, many of whom would benefit from this data, why would these answers be so difficult to derive? The answer is actually quite simple. Agile practitioners are themselves quite Agile. The definitions of what they do, when and where they do it, and how well they do, are continually in flux. Sizing a market that can't be bounded is an exercise in futility. Of course, there are those who rely on market data in order to launch or grow their businesses. But for the majority of Agile developers and managers, the data will not be relevant and should certainly not be a barrier to progress. Rather, Agile teams should absorb the wealth of Agile experiences that are being shared in the industry (i.e., qualitative factors) and not waste their time looking for hard data.
Who Cares About Market Sizing?
Quite a number of different constituencies care about the current and potential size of the Agile market. This may seem obvious, but it's worth stating:
Software vendors are the most frequent consumers of market data: they need to justify the need to build and sell products in the ever-changing software development industry. Development tools companies have always been volatile; mergers and acquisitions remain commonplace. Venture capital firms require quantitative information before investing. Global software companies seek diversification, but must be selective in launching new products.
Consultants must continually expand their offerings and remain competitive, particularly in the global climate where offshore services are attractive. Differentiation - in service offerings as well as software products - requires an appreciation for current and potential future opportunities.
IT organizations are frequently challenged to justify non-standard or new approaches. Market data can lie at the core of these justifications.
Why Can't We Size Agile Markets?
If we cannot even define an Agile market (or markets), there's no way to adequately determine current or future sizing. Few companies can even answer some basic questions.
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What is an Agile process? It is really quite amazing that after almost a decade of using Agile processes, we still cannot define what Agile development entails. In the flagship issue of the Agile Journal, I wrote about the important distinction between Agile and agile development. "Agile" refers to teams that follow specific, well-defined processes, such as XP, Scrum, DSDM, FDD, and Lean; "agile" refers to teams that are flexible and nimble in their practices. I'll restate that both "Agile" and "agile" approaches can be extremely beneficial and the goal of this journal is to help teams be successful across this spectrum. But, there is no set definition for any point along this spectrum, and therefore it's really impossible to compare one company's implementations against another.
Who is doing it? Software product companies are quick to cite their use of Agile processes as a factor in their software success. Some consultants are proactive; others respond to customers' requests and will also adapt their approaches if and when it positions their offerings favorably. Yet, IT adoption (the greatest growth area, as discussed rather than quantified), is more often confidential.
What is their Agile adoption approach? Is the company (or individual teams within a company) adopting a specific Agile process? Or is it adapting its legacy waterfall practices? And if so, what practices are the first to be adapted? The permutations are endless!
How extensive is their use? Companies that license methodology products, by seat or by site, can essentially provide the data on usage. This was the case for traditional purchases, particularly when vendors tied lifecycle management or project management tools to their methodology offerings. But it's been years since there's been a true "methodology" market - the majority of companies continually adopt and adapt their processes with purchases, homegrown ideas, and others' best practices. Every team's adoption varies, and few companies even have a grasp on the intricacies of their teams' approaches.
Using What's Available
Even with these caveats, companies still seek market data to support their ideas and investments. If you still want to try to quantify an ill-defined market, there are some surveys from which you can extrapolate results. But keep in mind that the benefits to IT teams will be largely qualitative.
Start with core industry application development market data. Having worked at several analyst firms for many years, I can say with confidence that there is a tremendous range of quality in the available market data. Scrutinize sample sizes, methodologies, and the breadth and depth of the respondents' experiences. Don't shy away from anecdotal information. I've often found that these can be the best sources of quality information, even without sold quantitative backup.
Companies that I work with frequently cite IDC's data as the best they could find - or the least bad. But mapping Agile usage to traditional software development usage is tricky. IDC (and others) typically breaks down its studies into specific application development markets, such as IT project portfolio management (ITPPM), automated software quality (ASQ), software change and configuration management (SCM), and other application lifecycle management (ALM) categories. But as we all know, these tools are used for Agile, agile, and non-agile projects. They can be selectively used on different Agile projects. For example, while most successful Agile teams use tools for SCM, build management, and continuous integration, they are not consistent in their use of project management and testing tools. Some Agile teams adapt their use of legacy ALM tools, while others choose to procure new products.
And what about the open source market - the most frequent place for new Agile teams to turn for lightweight tools? These products may show up in usage data, but don't make a dent in the market share data.[i] Traditional market share data is unlikely to reflect these tools appropriately.
There are a few new surveys specifically focused on the Agile developer community and how they are running their Agile projects. Here, IT teams can find some valuable insights and some key success factors from experienced Agile teams. In particular:
Close to 1,700 Agile developers responded to the "2nd Annual State of Agile Development Survey" co-sponsored by VersionOne and the Agile Project Leadership Network (APLN). This survey's results showed the drivers for many Agile initiatives, the challenges Agile teams find in scaling their Agile practices, and some qualitative benefits that teams have achieved.[ii]
Scott Ambler's Agile Adoption Rate survey (March 2007) had close to 800 respondents, all from the active software development community.[iii] This survey shares teams' experiences in a wide range of areas, including team size, iteration length, running distributed Agile projects, and use of specific Agile development and management practices.
Trailridge Consulting's October 2006 Agile Project Management Tooling Survey received over 500 responses from Agile teams worldwide.[iv] This survey does ask about Agile penetration within these organizations, as well as the ways in which teams use project management tools for their Agile projects.
Even though the respondent pools for these surveys are in no way reflective of the broad software development community, these surveys provide useful data into how Agile teams work. They are certainly of use to IT teams looking for best practices. They do not (and do not really intend to) help us understand Agile growth and potential in the overall software development market.
Conclusion: The Agile Market is Agile
This may all sound a little preachy, but the point should be clear: market data in the Agile world will be of very little use to IT teams. It's not just that I'm sick of being asked these questions, or frustrated at not having the answers. This lack of data actually reflects something positive: that Agile practices really do work. That, by their very nature, they are flexible and responsive to changing needs - those of the very developers that use them. So instead of backpedaling and finding excuses for why we cannot size the Agile market(s), we should consider it proof of the industry's success in improving software quality, timeliness, and usability by employing Agile practices.
There is a wealth of information in the industry that can be extremely valuable to an Agile team. The software and consulting industries will always rely on quantitative information to sustain and grow. But IT teams can benefit from the myriad developer- and management-oriented articles, blogs, worldwide conferences, books, and experiences from the open source community.[v] Read, network, and share ideas. Try to quantify the results on your own projects and publicize them. Don't get stuck on data. IT teams and their peers in the industry will provide the best help.
About the Author Liz Barnett is the Editor in Chief of the Agile Journal and Principal Analyst at EZ Insight Inc. Previously Liz spent 10 years as a Vice President and Research Analyst at Forrester Research, joining Forrester as a result of its acquisition of Giga Information Group. Liz held management positions at Accenture, PepsiCo, and Atelier Research. She also was the Research Director for the advanced software development and advanced network computing research services at New Science Associates, prior to its acquisition by Gartner Group. Liz holds a patent for developing a distributed application development/CASE tool. Liz earned her B.S. in operations research and industrial engineering at Cornell University.
[i] I say "don't make a dent" because many open source tools aren't totally free. Vendors and consultants are building practices to support and extend many open source tools, so this revenue needs to be factored into market data.
[ii] As noted in the Agile Journal, this is a selective respondent pool. "The survey was distributed specifically to "Agile aware" or "Agile practicing" developers including VersionOne's customer base and newsletter list, members of the APLN, readers of the Agile Journal, and a variety of relevant technology sites and user groups."
[iii] This also was not a random sample of developers -- 69 percent of respondents were currently running Agile projects. The survey was promoted in Dr. Dobbs' Journal (DDJ) and some other application development journals and sites.
[iv] Trailridge Consulting's survey also focused on experienced Agile teams, and specifically explored project management experiences. "The survey specifically targets companies that have adopted an agile process to some degree within their organization." It also factored in participants in several Agile Yahoo! Discussion Groups as a means to glean usage information.
[v] The Agile Journal is adding a resources section to the site that will continually grow. We would also encourage our readers to submit blogs, books, and other Agile resources that they find to be valuable.
Agile Journal 
Over the past few years, I've been asked repeatedly for market data on Agile development. How big is the Agile market? What is its potential size? What is the penetration of Agile processes? Unfortunately, my response has been and still remains the same: "No one really knows, and if you find someone purporting to have the data, don't trust it." With so many supporters in the IT, software vendor, and consulting communities, many of whom would benefit from this data, why would these answers be so difficult to derive? The answer is actually quite simple. Agile practitioners are themselves quite Agile. The definitions of what they do, when and where they do it, and how well they do, are continually in flux. Sizing a market that can't be bounded is an exercise in futility. Of course, there are those who rely on market data in order to launch or grow their businesses. But for the majority of Agile developers and managers, the data will not be relevant and should certainly not be a barrier to progress. Rather, Agile teams should absorb the wealth of Agile experiences that are being shared in the industry (i.e., qualitative factors) and not waste their time looking for hard data.
